Dynamics of Integration between Chinese and International Waste Paper Markets

ABSTRACT

China is the largest importer of waste paper in the world and is highly dependent on the international market. Thus, the relationship between Chinese and international waste paper markets affects the supply of fiber materials in China’s paper industry. This study examined the dynamic relationship between the two markets and the impact of newly implemented policies on both markets. We used unit root tests, cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM) and frequency-domain Granger causality test to investigate the integration between Chinese and international waste paper markets and identify which of the two markets is the price leader. The results revealed that the two markets were integrated after controlling for structural breaks, and the Chinese market acted as the price leader. Since the supply of waste paper and wood pulp is insufficient in China to meet the fiber demand of the paper industry, waste paper import restrictions have significantly affected the supply of fiber materials in China’s paper industry. Therefore, the Chinese government should fully consider the benefit of market integration and make full use of international waste paper resources to satisfy the large domestic demand for paper products.     

金融时间序列指标判别框架：以特质波动率为例

基于拐点集合判别的TBUD方法主要思路是分析拐点集合间的关系，并在高维空间进行划分，从而搭建判别模型，并将分析框架应用在特质波动率等若干指标上，利用实证数据得到结论。应用TBUD判别框架可以发现，特质波动率等指标无法对拐点集合进行清晰划分，因而并不具有预测能力。     

基于数据库的温室环境决策支持系统的设计与实现

用Delphi6．0编写构建了温室环境的决策支持系统。系统中的知识库、模型库和数据库以数据库为基础，采用Database Desktop来设计，有助于系统对知识、模型和相关数据的管理。对系统决策的过程采用基于数据库的方法进行编写，解决了温室环境智能决策过程中推理困难的问题，同时提高了决策的准确程度。     

基于随机森林回归算法的小麦叶片SPAD值遥感估算

使用机器学习中的随机森林(RF)回归算法构建小麦叶片SPAD值遥感反演模型。以2010—2013年江苏地区试验点稻茬小麦3个生育期(拔节、孕穗、开花)的叶片为材料,结合我国自主研发的环境减灾卫星HJ-1对研究区域进行同步监测,分析了各生育期叶片SPAD值与8种植被指数间的相关性;以0.01水平下显著相关的植被指数作为输入参数,使用RF回归算法构建了每个生育期的小麦SPAD反演算法模型,即RF-SPAD模型,以支持向量回归(SVR)和反向传播(BP)神经网络算法构建的SVR-SPAD模型和BP-SPAD模型作为比较模型,以R2和均方根误差(RMSE)为指标,分析了每个生育期3个模型的学习能力和回归预测能力,结果表明:RF-SPAD模型在3个生育期都表现出最强的学习能力,R2和RMSE在拔节期分别为0.89和1.54,孕穗期分别为0.85和1.49,开花期分别为0.80和1.71;RF-SPAD模型在3个生育期的回归预测能力都高于BP-SPAD模型,高于或接近于SVR-SPAD模型,R2和RMSE在拔节期分别为0.55和2.11,孕穗期分别为0.72和2.20,开花期分别为0.60和3.16。     

支持向量机在水质评价中的应用

介绍了支持向量机算法的原理，建立了基于支持向量机的水质评价多层次分类检测模型，通过提取水质评价标准中的物质成分为特征参数，利用几个SVM分类器的串联组合，实现对水质的分类和识别，同时，引入类权重因子，解决训练样本类别数量不平衡而导致的错分问题，实验结果显示该方法提高了水质评价的准确性和效率。     

基于可见光机器视觉的棉花伪异性纤维识别方法

为提高皮棉质量和皮棉中异纤的检测精度,提出了一种基于机器视觉的棉花伪异性纤维识别方法。皮棉经过开松装置被制成薄棉层,检测通道两侧的相机对棉层进行拍摄,并将采集到的棉层及异纤和伪异纤图像保存到工控机,通过图像分块及阈值分割等算法,提取伪异纤目标区域,统计获取区域的数个颜色、形状和纹理特征,基于特征数据,分别使用BP神经网络、一对一有向无环图策略线性核函数支持向量机和径向基核函数支持向量机对两大类棉花杂质进行分类识别。实验结果表明,99.15%的伪异纤目标可被准确识别,径向基核函数支持向量机在棉花异纤和伪异纤分类识别中,总分类正确率为95.60%,能够满足在线检测的要求。     

A Spatial Approach to Participatory Planning in Forestry Decision Making

A method is introduced in which qualitative information obtained in a public participation process is transformed into quantitative spatial decision support for forest management planning. In the first phase, qualitative analysis is implemented by using the tools of qualitative research analysis. Then, a method is developed whereby it is possible to connect the expressed opinions to certain locations, to weight these opinions in a sensible way, and then to combine them in the form of a score map. In this phase, geographic information system (GIS) and preference analysis tools were used. The case study, carried out in the area managed by the Finnish Forest and Park Service, illustrates how to pack huge amounts of unstructured public feedback as decision support. The result of the analysis was a score map ranking pixels in the study area according to the aggregated preferences and norms expressed by public. Based on the case study experiences, it was concluded that most of this kind of public feedback can be illustrated for decision makers by using a few score maps.     

Can epidemiology and economics make a meaningful contribution to national animal-disease control?

The general role of veterinary epidemiology and economics to national animal-disease control throughout the world is considered for the four main groupings of animal diseases: zoonotic, food-borne, endemic and epidemic diseases. This is done by considering how veterinary epidemiology and economics has contributed to priority setting (which diseases come first?), decision-making (for a given disease, which strategy is best?), and disease control implementation (how can optimal delivery and adoption of selected interventions best be achieved?). Within each of these categories, progress made and future opportunities are discussed. In addition, a review is made of how veterinary epidemiology and economics has been institutionalised. We conclude that veterinary epidemiology and economics holds a unique role in the development of national policies and strategies for improved animal health world-wide. However, we consider that we must capitalise more on the unique comparative advantage of the partnership between veterinarians and agricultural economists. We believe that much remains to be done to improve the "institutionalisation" of veterinary epidemiology and economics, and the adoption and impact of the products of our unique partnership, particularly in countries of the developing world.     

推土机履带行走系统的设计及工艺改进

针对T90/T100推土机履带行走系统存在拖带轮偏磨问题,分析其产生的主要原因是行车架焊合件加工质量不稳定,提出了控制质量的具体措施,取得了良好效果,为今后一系列推土机履带行走系统的设计改进提供了借鉴经验。     

基于PCA_SVR的油菜氮素光谱特征定量分析模型

研究了采用光谱分析技术对油菜植株全氮进行定量分析的方法.采用逐步回归法对氮素的光谱特征波长进行选择,为克服光谱变量间多重共线性的影响,对变量进行了主成分分析(PCA),为提高模型的拟合优度,应用支持向量机回归(SVR)建立油菜氮素的定量分析模型.对不同氮素水平的油菜冠层光谱数据进行分析,结果表明,406、460、556、634、662、675nm的光谱反射率与油菜含氮量呈极显著相关.植株全氮SVR模型预测值与实测值的相关系数为0.89,模型的检验误差(RMSE)为2.51.